- A new model suggests Bitcoin could reach $10 million in under 6 years.
- The same paper also suggests that BTC price could hit $20 million in 10 years.
- The paper came from two authors from the Satoshi Action Education non-profit.
The crypto community is thrilled to hear that a new model suggests Bitcoin could reach $10 million in under 6 years and $20 million in 10 years. In detail, a paper titled Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics, written by Dr. Murray A. Rudd and Dennis Porter, from Satoshi Action Education, Portland, Orlando, USA comes to the conclusion that led to the bold statement, predicting high Bitcoin prices.
New Model Suggests Bitcoin Could Reach $10 to $20 Million
The paper suggesting these highs is a research paper where the authors have developed a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21 million total supply, with plausible demand growth and execution behavior. Thus, the model relies solely on first-principles economic supply and demand dynamics rather than assumptions about Bitcoin price appreciation, its historical price trend, or its potential effectiveness in demonetizing other asset classes.
To estimate Bitcoin price and market capitalization, Rudd and Porter considered five key variables: daily withdrawal levels from liquid supply, initial liquid supply, intertemporal investment preferences, market demand shifts, and withdrawal sensitivity. A Monte Carlo simulation that randomly sampled across all five key variables found a 75% likelihood that Bitcoin price will exceed $4.81 million by April 2036.
The paper then goes on to state that generally, prices from the low single-millions to the low tens-of-millions per coin by 2036 emerge under broad parameter sets; hyperbolic paths to higher price levels are relatively rare and concentrate when liquid supply falls near or below 2 million Bitcoin and withdrawal sensitivity is low. Meanwhile, cross-model triangulation shows alignment with forecasts from institutions at the cutting edge of Bitcoin investing.
This Expectation Could Arrive Between 6 to 10 Years
Following this discovery, Rudd and Porter went on to identify measurable state variables and policy-neutral levers such as, encumbrance mapping, time-to-threshold metrics, and withdrawal sensitivity estimation. Looking at these levers, they hoped to figure out how to better locate where right-tail risk concentrates and steer trajectories toward steep, but-bounded, price appreciation.
As we can see from the image in the paper from the post above, they conclude that fan width expands rapidly after 2026, showing that uncertainty in starting liquidity amplifies forecast dispersion more than any single behavioral parameter. The 1% worst-case path slips below 2 million Bitcoin by January 19, 2026 and under 1 million by December 7, 2027, entering the regime that produced hyperbolic moves.
Lastly, the paper states that the Median and upper-tail paths, however, never breach 5 million coins. The image shows how even modest uncertainty in the initial stock can separate benign scarcity from a runaway squeeze, because the liquidation zone is reached only in the tails with thin supply, and it follows that extreme price outcomes may be more likely to arrive in later years.