- Popular analyst and crypto figure shares detailed BTC overview.
- According to his observations, a new structure could be forming for BTC.
- The data points to a continued BTC rally and an altseason price pump.
As the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a steady sideways movement between lower prices of $89,000 and $92,000, analysts grow anxious over where the price of BTC will go next. While some anticipate a much deeper drop spurred by bearish market action, others expect a bounce once BTC hits $83,000. Presently, one popular analyst and crypto figure shares a detailed BTC overview, suggesting a new BTC structure.
Popular Analyst and Crypto Figure Shares Detailed BTC Overview
At the moment, the most popular opinion among bullish analysts is that the 4-year bull cycle has ended, meaning the BTC pump cycle is shifting into something completely new. Presently, the biggest reason behind Bitcoin shifting into a bear cycle is that the 4-year bull cycle has completed its number of days, but if the 4-year bull cycle is no longer in play, then it is highly plausible that a bull market revival will play out in a few months.
As we can see from the post above, this reputed crypto analyst goes on to share a BTC Daily MA200 Analysis Across 4 Bitcoin Cycles (End of Cycle: Q4 correction Vs Q1 Retest). He begins with the 2013–2014 cycle and highlights how once the price closed under MA200, it triggered a deep 71% correction. After finding the bottom, BTC made a 94% relief rally back toward the MA200 but failed to reclaim it.
With that cycle, he concludes that MA200 acted as heavy resistance during the entire bear phase. Next, with the 2017–2018 cycle, he cites a similar structure where BTC lost MA200 after the top. This breakdown caused a 67% decline over 109 days, and BTC did a 54% relief rally, but again could not reclaim the MA200. This resulted in a multi-month accumulation under MA200 before a new bull cycle.
Crypto Cycle Market Dynamics
With this, he concludes that MA200 = Bear Market Roof for that cycle. Next, he looks at the 2021–2022 cycle and marks how BTC fell below MA200 after the mid-cycle top. The breakdown led to a 52% drop, and BTC bounced 44%, touched the MA200, but failed to flip it. Thus, price continued grinding lower for months. Here, he concludes that MA200 rejection = continuation of the bear market.
Next, for the current 2025–2026 cycle, he states that BTC has again broken below MA200 after a big run. So far, the correction is -28%, in line with previous cycles. If BTC repeats history, a relief rally toward MA200 is likely. Failure to reclaim MA200 could trigger multi-month sideways/lower price action, and a clean reclaim of MA200 would signal a new bullish phase.
All in all, the analyst says that losing MA200 at the end of the bull cycle (Q4) starts the bear phase. Relief rally back to MA200 = normal, but failure to reclaim MA200 = extended bear market/accumulation zone. Reclaiming and holding above MA200 = new bull cycle begins. So, if the 4-year cycle theory is dead, we will see a new structure in the Bitcoin chart in 2026. If the bear cycle is going to start, the market will give a retest rally at any time in the next 6 months, as per all the last 3 cycles. If it repeats Q1/2018, we can see a 3x-5x jump in altcoins from here.
